Today's Lesson

I'm going to start by pointing out the failure in my last pick SOLF. Technical picks don't always work out since all you have to go with is an indicator and not much else. Today's unfortunate news of a downgrade by some analyst is always unpredictable. Sometimes analysts will downgrade a stock just so they can get it cheap for themselves or a client. I have seen this myself at least once before. When that happens usually the stock will recover soon after the downgrade. We will see in the coming days. Solar fun hasn't reported earnings yet so with this failure it may as well be an avoid until earnings have been posted.

Tonight's pick is DRYS. The whole dry bulk shipping group has posted very good earnings and DRYS is no exception. The stock is consolidating nicely and may break out of this box I highlighted. Buy point is above $88.60 or now if you have the guts. The markets are a bit overbought so keep that in consideration because we may be getting close to some kind of sell off.

Technical Pick

Today's market made some significant gains both in up moves and long term trendlines. Even though the market is a bit overbought, more upside is to come shortly. Volume is still key since most bulls are still waiting for some extraordinary news to propel this market out of this bearish phase. Tonight I decided to post a technical pick rather than the usual chart pattern. The stochastic indicator is the only one I consider the most accurate so this is what I will be highlighting tonight. SOLF was a pick I had about a month ago for a stochastic crossover and once again is doing that same move. Buy point is now and may be worth 2 to 4 points or more. Remember the market is still highly volatile.

Double Bottom!

Another interesting day in the markets with bad news signaling inflation. The gap down was eventually filled and the markets lifted nicely. Like I have been saying recently, volatility is here to stay at least for the short term. Tonight's chart is of solar panel maker FSLR. This stock has risen after great earnings reports the past couple of quarters. It's latest report made a nice gap up in the stock's chart and has consolidated nicely for the past week. There's a possible falling wedge that may indicate a breakout to the upside. I also noticed that there's a double bottom that would give this chart a much better chance of working out. Buy point would be now with some resistance at $236. Stop loss would be somewhere around $201 but in this volatile market remember to keep an eye on this and any other stocks you own.

Volatile days

Another day of volatility as I mentioned last night. The markets can't seem to get going just yet. More time is needed before we can get this situation sorted out and have stocks make some nice consolidation. Over time stocks should do some sideways work and hang tight during this bad market days. Tonight I found a stock called PXD. After posting some decent earnings the stock is consolidating nicely and is almost ready to move higher should the market allow it. Buy point is somewhere around $45.30 with an increase in volume. Oil soared just past the $100 mark so keep an eye on some of those oil stocks. Personally I don't like trading those since their price is too closely tied to the price of oil. If oil should drop on news, then most oil stocks follow suit no matter how great the companies may be. The markets are still in neutral territory so upside may come sometime this week.

Holiday Bliss

Nothing new to report today. I've been looking at the market and stocks and couldn't see anything to write home about. After this 3 day weekend it's hard to say where investor confidence will be. The market is currently near neutral levels so I expect it to go either way with more bias to the upside. Some former winners are consolidating nicely and may be getting ready to start a new uptrend. You can be sure this whole subprime mess is not going to go away any time soon so I expect some volatility to stay at least for the next couple of weeks. Cash and some quick plays would be best right now at least until all the bad news get out of the way. This election year is not going to help this market either since this correction should have gone without a glitch but as we have seen that's not happening. The current administration is trying to keep it's political party in the White House so they're trying to save the market. That's getting in the way of a healthy correction that would be expected at the end of a bull market. I'm worried that shortly after the new president gets elected, there would be no reason to keep this market afloat anymore. On the other hand, since this correction got going last summer I actually expect this market to turn bullish at some point this year. When that happens nobody knows but I will let you my readers know when I start seeing the signs of that happening.

Solar panel makers, fertilizer makers, oil companies, oil drillers, and home builders are the groups you should have on your watchlist right now. Those are the stocks that will probably go first should the market soar.

Thursday's Pick

The markets are having very good days lately but are getting close to both oversold levels and heavy resistance levels so caution is warrated now. My recent selections WFR, CF, and VMW are moving very well. ATW is at my recent buy point and I expect it to move forward as early as tomorrow. Today's pick is SOLF which I mentioned a couple of days ago but was not ready then. After having consolidated enough time, I think it's ready to move higher this time around. Buy point on this selection would be somewhere north of $19 on heavy volume. This box should help it move higher specially since FSLR posted very good profits. That stock will probably be a pick soon but I would rather wait for it to consolidate and form some sort of a base or pattern before I recommend it. Remember the markets will close this coming Monday and that may have some selling pressure this Friday since many traders don't like to hold on to positions over long weekends.

Still Waiting

The markets moved up nicely today after being quite a bit down the first hour of trading. Traditional wisdom would tell you that it's a sign of a bull market when the markets start down and end up. We know that we're not in a bull market yet so caution is still warranted. Last night's picks CF and ATW are almost there so be ready when they go. If you're adventurous you could buy now before their move but that would be premature and failure could always happen. BP is also a good pick I would recommend buying above $65 on good volume. TBSI and DRYS are also good picks I would buy right now but just some shares until the markets improve. Feltilizer, solar and dry bulk shipping are the sectors I would keep an eye on for now. FSLR, SPWR and SOLF have very similar looking charts that I would consider having a small position on. The markets are still neutral to a bit overbought so more upside could be here soon.

Monday's Late Selections

The market's are still trying to figure out where they want to go. As of right now I would say we're in somewhat neutral territory but I have seen some serious buying lately. Of course that doesn't mean that we can't see some more serious selling. Hopefully things will work out for the better. Tonight I decided to add 2 charts rather than the usual 1. CF industries has posted superb earnings and that group is benefiting from the big demand in the agriculture sector. As you can see in the chart, the stock has been consolidating nicely and is ready to move higher. Buy point is above $112 on higher than average volume. ATW too had good earnings and the stock may try to run higher from here. Buy point on ATW would be above $90 on good volume. Remember that the markets will dictate if this 2 patterns will work out or not.

Nothing New

The markets went up nicely today but not in a very convincing way. Even though many stocks moved up, I don't think is was a sign of accumulation. Until we get into oversold areas I would wait before making any new stock purchases. Tomorrow will tell since it's end of the week and some traders don't like holding over the weekend. When things get better I will have more stocks ready to move.

Almost There.....

Once again the markets sold off today just like I expected it. Today's selloff brough the markets to a level about neutral. What that means is that now it could go either way. It could rally but it would be better if it would selloff at least 1 or 2 more days. If that happens, then next week would be very bullish. VMW worked out like I said if the markets wouldn't selloff as bad as Tuesday. If it continues it's upward trend, and if the markets become bullish then it could fill it's recent gap. That could be all the way up to $72 to $73. Just remember that the key word is "if". After this weekend there will probably plenty of stocks setup to move higher.

Proceed With Caution

The markets for the most part found no buyers today. Fear is easier to find than greed. Having said that, the markets are now just a bit overbought and could see 1 or 2 more days of selling. If you're in cash, then next week will probably be better to put your money back in the markets. Keep an eye in your stocks that are not selling off too much. That's a show of strengh and will most likely soar when the markets comeback. I managed to find a stock for you to look at and consider should the market push it above resistance. VMW gapped down even though earnings were not that bad but the stock has remained in an area and is resisting the selloff. The gap down was overdone and unjustified in my opinion and that's why the stock is trying a comeback. Buy point would be now up to around $60 if the markets don't selloff again as bad as they did today. Keep your stops tight and be patient since buying oppotunities will come again.

Terrible Day!

What a day to stay out of the market. Like I said last night, the markets were still overbought and more downside was to come. I didn't expect it would tank this bad but all it takes is one bad news item and sellers appear out of nowhere. There's no reason to panic since this is just normal market behavior. I know that for days to come there's going to be all this silly talk about recession and slowing economy, etc. This is where patience is very important. If you're in cash then you're safe but if you must trade you have to wait for the markets to be ready. I will try to find some setups later on so don't panic.

Markets Still Overbought

Nothing new to report today. As I mentioned last night, the markets were very overbought and as expected they sold off. However the good news is that this is not a bad selloff as it has happened in recent weeks. The markets did not have huge swings like we have seen in the past few months. Thats means that the markets are becoming more stable and are getting ready to continue their uptrend. Will they break recent all time highs?, that's hard to tell but we have to get ready with good stocks setting up for that possible move. Expect more selling since todays bad action was not enough to bring the markets out of this overbought condition. Make sure your stocks don't selloff too much or you too may have to sell. Maybe this week will be all selling off so expect next week to be bullish. Keep an eye on solar, home builders, financials, shippers and oil stocks. Those seem to be the strong groups and will be the better movers when the market is ready.

Airgas Inc

I was going though my charts recently and found ARG is looking good. Having posted good earnings recently we find ARG starting a possible new uptrend. It's usually better if a stock makes a new base for a couple of days but that doesn't always happen. Buy point is at $48 or slightly above that. However the maket is very overbought as of Friday and that means that we will see a selloff sometime this week. As much as I would like to say that this is a definite buy right now or buy any other stocks, I would suggest to have caution this week. The markets need to workoff this overbought readings before it gets going once again. It's bear time at least for 3 days or more. I see lots of stocks building nice bases but need more time and the market to be right before buying into this. XLNX and NITE are working out well but keep an eye on them and don't let them fall too much if the selloff begins.

Do you Yahoo?

I had a feeling this was going to happen sooner or later. Microsoft is getting a bit desperate by trying to buy Yahoo!. The perfect time would be when earnings dissapoint and the stock hits a new low. I don't think this deal is going to go through. The justice department will not allow 2 big companies like those to reduce a limited segment like websearch is. I know there's a lot of search engines out there but who uses anything other than the popular ones. I don't think the Yahoo! founders will cave in either. There's too much at stake. Yahoo didn't report a loss recently. They did however report a slowdown in their earnings. That's not a reason to sell a company to your rivals. We know that Google wants to rule the world but there's nothing wrong with having competitors. Yahoo! will in the future increase earnings just like any big company does. Earnings deceleration is just part of any company's business cycle.