Monster Day.....!

What a rally we had today. The Fed did what he had to do as usual. At first it seemed this rally had no legs, but in the end the Bulls won the day. The Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000 seem to be coming out of a double bottom chart pattern. Usually this means that higher prices will be here very soon. Remember that this bear market still here and we are just bouncing off oversold readings. However if investors decide to buy more, then we could be seeing the start of a new bull market. Only up volume will tell the whole story.

Tonight I decided to highlight a previous winner with good earnings. CSIQ is coming out of a triangle and may start it's way higher if the market helps it. Volume is key since it has been dropping the past couple of days. Buy point is now if the market can hold to it's recent gains.

Short Term Bottom

Just like I have been talking about lately, the markets finally bounced off extremely oversold levels. What a bounce it was too. I'm hoping that the Fed's move is going to be perceived as more than just a bandaid to recent problems in the economy. If we can get good follow through very soon, almost any stock would be worth going long on. Fertilizer, solar and home builders are the groups to watch for this move.

Tonight I decided to highlight a technical play that could be worth a couple of points. CROX was a winner last year but stocks don't go up forever. After taking a beating the last couple of months, the stock has made a bottom and is very oversold. Today the stock had a nice turnaround on very good volume and has made a stochastic crossover. Buy point is now and could get up to $25 or so. Remember that the market was very oversold and may go up from here for some time to come.

Almost There......

Not much to report right now. The markets are obviously in bear market mode so any longs are tough to enter. I do see the we are at oversold areas that soon will make the markets bounce strongly. I would start to look to exit any short positions very soon. After we get that first day of a turnaround, I will post some stocks to go long. Right now I think we should all wait for confirmation.

Where Are The Markets Going?

It seems that there's no end to the selling. We just can't get enough bad news lately. Tuesday's rally was just another feeble attempt by the markets. "Where's the bottom?" traders keep asking. We are retesting recent lows and if the bad news don't stop, we could see a break from those lows. Bear markets are a necessary evil that's needed to establish a new trend and bull market. If you can't day trade or are not willing to keep an eye on your stocks, then cash would be best. One strategy that you could use is to wait for the markets to be at an extreme reading and then go with the trend. Right now the markets are somewhat oversold and could be getting ready to reverse the short term trend. What that means is that if you want to buy low and sell high, this could be the opportunity. However don't expect too much profit. Just a quick couple of points just until the markets get overbought once again. Next week we are bound to see a nice bounce up if not tomorrow. Remember to buy only the strongest stocks such as the ones that just posted great earnings.

Odd Markets..........

Not much to report today with the markets doing odd behavior once again. It doesn't matter if you were a bull or bear today, if you aren't day trading you can't stay long in this market. I personally would like to see 1 or 2 more days of selling to get this market into very oversold areas. If it can do this, then it would be ready for a big bounce. As of today the markets are a bit oversold. If we can get this selloff I feel it's coming, then almost any stock you follow will probably rally.

Tuesday's Oil Pick

Just as I suggested last Wednesday night, the markets sold off from overbought areas. Unfortunately it also means that my pick DRYS also had a bad failure. Once again more time is needed. This bear market behavior may take some time to work itself off and selling to exhaust itself. Bad news seem to find no end just as the word "recession" is being mentioned more and more. I for one don't think that recession or this market sell off is such a bad thing. It's a normal market cycle that will also end eventually. When it does, a new bull market will begin. Patience is also a skill most traders have to learn.

Tonight's pick is RIG. This company is in the oil sector and is one of the better movers. Now that oil prices are going through the roof, this could be a winner. The markets also have to do their part of course. Buy point is somewhere north of $145 on good volume. Remember that this stock's action is not only tied to the market but also to the price of oil.

Today's Lesson

I'm going to start by pointing out the failure in my last pick SOLF. Technical picks don't always work out since all you have to go with is an indicator and not much else. Today's unfortunate news of a downgrade by some analyst is always unpredictable. Sometimes analysts will downgrade a stock just so they can get it cheap for themselves or a client. I have seen this myself at least once before. When that happens usually the stock will recover soon after the downgrade. We will see in the coming days. Solar fun hasn't reported earnings yet so with this failure it may as well be an avoid until earnings have been posted.

Tonight's pick is DRYS. The whole dry bulk shipping group has posted very good earnings and DRYS is no exception. The stock is consolidating nicely and may break out of this box I highlighted. Buy point is above $88.60 or now if you have the guts. The markets are a bit overbought so keep that in consideration because we may be getting close to some kind of sell off.

Technical Pick

Today's market made some significant gains both in up moves and long term trendlines. Even though the market is a bit overbought, more upside is to come shortly. Volume is still key since most bulls are still waiting for some extraordinary news to propel this market out of this bearish phase. Tonight I decided to post a technical pick rather than the usual chart pattern. The stochastic indicator is the only one I consider the most accurate so this is what I will be highlighting tonight. SOLF was a pick I had about a month ago for a stochastic crossover and once again is doing that same move. Buy point is now and may be worth 2 to 4 points or more. Remember the market is still highly volatile.

Double Bottom!

Another interesting day in the markets with bad news signaling inflation. The gap down was eventually filled and the markets lifted nicely. Like I have been saying recently, volatility is here to stay at least for the short term. Tonight's chart is of solar panel maker FSLR. This stock has risen after great earnings reports the past couple of quarters. It's latest report made a nice gap up in the stock's chart and has consolidated nicely for the past week. There's a possible falling wedge that may indicate a breakout to the upside. I also noticed that there's a double bottom that would give this chart a much better chance of working out. Buy point would be now with some resistance at $236. Stop loss would be somewhere around $201 but in this volatile market remember to keep an eye on this and any other stocks you own.

Volatile days

Another day of volatility as I mentioned last night. The markets can't seem to get going just yet. More time is needed before we can get this situation sorted out and have stocks make some nice consolidation. Over time stocks should do some sideways work and hang tight during this bad market days. Tonight I found a stock called PXD. After posting some decent earnings the stock is consolidating nicely and is almost ready to move higher should the market allow it. Buy point is somewhere around $45.30 with an increase in volume. Oil soared just past the $100 mark so keep an eye on some of those oil stocks. Personally I don't like trading those since their price is too closely tied to the price of oil. If oil should drop on news, then most oil stocks follow suit no matter how great the companies may be. The markets are still in neutral territory so upside may come sometime this week.

Holiday Bliss

Nothing new to report today. I've been looking at the market and stocks and couldn't see anything to write home about. After this 3 day weekend it's hard to say where investor confidence will be. The market is currently near neutral levels so I expect it to go either way with more bias to the upside. Some former winners are consolidating nicely and may be getting ready to start a new uptrend. You can be sure this whole subprime mess is not going to go away any time soon so I expect some volatility to stay at least for the next couple of weeks. Cash and some quick plays would be best right now at least until all the bad news get out of the way. This election year is not going to help this market either since this correction should have gone without a glitch but as we have seen that's not happening. The current administration is trying to keep it's political party in the White House so they're trying to save the market. That's getting in the way of a healthy correction that would be expected at the end of a bull market. I'm worried that shortly after the new president gets elected, there would be no reason to keep this market afloat anymore. On the other hand, since this correction got going last summer I actually expect this market to turn bullish at some point this year. When that happens nobody knows but I will let you my readers know when I start seeing the signs of that happening.

Solar panel makers, fertilizer makers, oil companies, oil drillers, and home builders are the groups you should have on your watchlist right now. Those are the stocks that will probably go first should the market soar.

Thursday's Pick

The markets are having very good days lately but are getting close to both oversold levels and heavy resistance levels so caution is warrated now. My recent selections WFR, CF, and VMW are moving very well. ATW is at my recent buy point and I expect it to move forward as early as tomorrow. Today's pick is SOLF which I mentioned a couple of days ago but was not ready then. After having consolidated enough time, I think it's ready to move higher this time around. Buy point on this selection would be somewhere north of $19 on heavy volume. This box should help it move higher specially since FSLR posted very good profits. That stock will probably be a pick soon but I would rather wait for it to consolidate and form some sort of a base or pattern before I recommend it. Remember the markets will close this coming Monday and that may have some selling pressure this Friday since many traders don't like to hold on to positions over long weekends.

Still Waiting

The markets moved up nicely today after being quite a bit down the first hour of trading. Traditional wisdom would tell you that it's a sign of a bull market when the markets start down and end up. We know that we're not in a bull market yet so caution is still warranted. Last night's picks CF and ATW are almost there so be ready when they go. If you're adventurous you could buy now before their move but that would be premature and failure could always happen. BP is also a good pick I would recommend buying above $65 on good volume. TBSI and DRYS are also good picks I would buy right now but just some shares until the markets improve. Feltilizer, solar and dry bulk shipping are the sectors I would keep an eye on for now. FSLR, SPWR and SOLF have very similar looking charts that I would consider having a small position on. The markets are still neutral to a bit overbought so more upside could be here soon.

Monday's Late Selections

The market's are still trying to figure out where they want to go. As of right now I would say we're in somewhat neutral territory but I have seen some serious buying lately. Of course that doesn't mean that we can't see some more serious selling. Hopefully things will work out for the better. Tonight I decided to add 2 charts rather than the usual 1. CF industries has posted superb earnings and that group is benefiting from the big demand in the agriculture sector. As you can see in the chart, the stock has been consolidating nicely and is ready to move higher. Buy point is above $112 on higher than average volume. ATW too had good earnings and the stock may try to run higher from here. Buy point on ATW would be above $90 on good volume. Remember that the markets will dictate if this 2 patterns will work out or not.

Nothing New

The markets went up nicely today but not in a very convincing way. Even though many stocks moved up, I don't think is was a sign of accumulation. Until we get into oversold areas I would wait before making any new stock purchases. Tomorrow will tell since it's end of the week and some traders don't like holding over the weekend. When things get better I will have more stocks ready to move.

Almost There.....

Once again the markets sold off today just like I expected it. Today's selloff brough the markets to a level about neutral. What that means is that now it could go either way. It could rally but it would be better if it would selloff at least 1 or 2 more days. If that happens, then next week would be very bullish. VMW worked out like I said if the markets wouldn't selloff as bad as Tuesday. If it continues it's upward trend, and if the markets become bullish then it could fill it's recent gap. That could be all the way up to $72 to $73. Just remember that the key word is "if". After this weekend there will probably plenty of stocks setup to move higher.

Proceed With Caution

The markets for the most part found no buyers today. Fear is easier to find than greed. Having said that, the markets are now just a bit overbought and could see 1 or 2 more days of selling. If you're in cash, then next week will probably be better to put your money back in the markets. Keep an eye in your stocks that are not selling off too much. That's a show of strengh and will most likely soar when the markets comeback. I managed to find a stock for you to look at and consider should the market push it above resistance. VMW gapped down even though earnings were not that bad but the stock has remained in an area and is resisting the selloff. The gap down was overdone and unjustified in my opinion and that's why the stock is trying a comeback. Buy point would be now up to around $60 if the markets don't selloff again as bad as they did today. Keep your stops tight and be patient since buying oppotunities will come again.

Terrible Day!

What a day to stay out of the market. Like I said last night, the markets were still overbought and more downside was to come. I didn't expect it would tank this bad but all it takes is one bad news item and sellers appear out of nowhere. There's no reason to panic since this is just normal market behavior. I know that for days to come there's going to be all this silly talk about recession and slowing economy, etc. This is where patience is very important. If you're in cash then you're safe but if you must trade you have to wait for the markets to be ready. I will try to find some setups later on so don't panic.

Markets Still Overbought

Nothing new to report today. As I mentioned last night, the markets were very overbought and as expected they sold off. However the good news is that this is not a bad selloff as it has happened in recent weeks. The markets did not have huge swings like we have seen in the past few months. Thats means that the markets are becoming more stable and are getting ready to continue their uptrend. Will they break recent all time highs?, that's hard to tell but we have to get ready with good stocks setting up for that possible move. Expect more selling since todays bad action was not enough to bring the markets out of this overbought condition. Make sure your stocks don't selloff too much or you too may have to sell. Maybe this week will be all selling off so expect next week to be bullish. Keep an eye on solar, home builders, financials, shippers and oil stocks. Those seem to be the strong groups and will be the better movers when the market is ready.

Airgas Inc

I was going though my charts recently and found ARG is looking good. Having posted good earnings recently we find ARG starting a possible new uptrend. It's usually better if a stock makes a new base for a couple of days but that doesn't always happen. Buy point is at $48 or slightly above that. However the maket is very overbought as of Friday and that means that we will see a selloff sometime this week. As much as I would like to say that this is a definite buy right now or buy any other stocks, I would suggest to have caution this week. The markets need to workoff this overbought readings before it gets going once again. It's bear time at least for 3 days or more. I see lots of stocks building nice bases but need more time and the market to be right before buying into this. XLNX and NITE are working out well but keep an eye on them and don't let them fall too much if the selloff begins.

Do you Yahoo?

I had a feeling this was going to happen sooner or later. Microsoft is getting a bit desperate by trying to buy Yahoo!. The perfect time would be when earnings dissapoint and the stock hits a new low. I don't think this deal is going to go through. The justice department will not allow 2 big companies like those to reduce a limited segment like websearch is. I know there's a lot of search engines out there but who uses anything other than the popular ones. I don't think the Yahoo! founders will cave in either. There's too much at stake. Yahoo didn't report a loss recently. They did however report a slowdown in their earnings. That's not a reason to sell a company to your rivals. We know that Google wants to rule the world but there's nothing wrong with having competitors. Yahoo! will in the future increase earnings just like any big company does. Earnings deceleration is just part of any company's business cycle.

Today's Chart

The markets are a bit overbought and that could bring some weakness tomorrow but if it doesn't, then this chart may work out. PLXS is almost ready for a breakout of this box. If the markets don't continue today's selloff then the buy point is somewhere from $22.90 to 23 or so. Look for unusually heavy volume as this happens. If other traders see this box then the move up could be quick and leave you behind. If the stock breaks out but the market sells off badly, then this could come back below the buy point so be sure to measure your risk and decide what to do if it happens. Support is around $21.45 so don't let this one fall too much under that.

The Fed Did It Again

Or did he? We already knew there was going to be a rate cut. The question was for how much. Half a percentage point is what the markets wanted but as you saw the markets sold off towards the end. That's not exactly a good reaction to a measure that was supposed to help the economy and in turn the markets themselves.

I have noticed that since the markets topped recently, the volatility went up a lot and the markets had a delayed reaction to any positive Fed news. That could mean that the markets rally at some point tomorrow or that today's failed rally was it. I would have preferred that the markets didn't rally today and waited for tomorrow but we know what happened. On the other hand as of yesterday, the markets were already slightly overbought so this selloff was not a surprise. What we need at this point is positive earnings reports from the leading companies to save this market from any further selloff.

Chart Play

This following pick is a purely technical play. SOLF was a previous high flyer that doubled soon after a recent breakout all the way to $40. The market's recent breakdown and the stock's over speculation made it fall all the way to under $15 the past couple of days. The solar group itself suffered some very bad loses recently but some stocks in that group have found bottoms and are coming around. SOLF is one of them and as you can see it has made a significant stochastic crossover and will probably breakout of this box I highlighted. Buy point is now if the markets can get going tomorrow. I put no targets on stocks since it's not a good idea to sell a stock that's going up but SOLF will probably find resistance somewhere around $22.

Great Day On Fed Wait

Another good day as we await for the Fed decision tomorrow. The Dow is about to breakout above a very significant level just over today's high. Tomorrow should the Fed say something that pleases the markets, we will see a possible resuming of the previous uptrend. 12500 is major resistance for the Dow Jones. I think it will probably be broken tomorrow. Yahoo's earnings report did not go well with investors and the stock is down after hours. Many others are also going down in sympathy. I don't know why anyone cares about Yahoo as a leader at this point but tomorrow it will pressure the markets. If the Fed pleases, then Yahoo's bad news will be forgotten. The solar group is on the move and breaking out. I will have some picks later on today.

Western Digital

WDC has risen after posting earnings and may be ready to move shortly. Typically I would wait 2 or more days to build a base but it may not wait that long. If the markets get moving tomorrow or after the Fed announcement, WDC may climb to recent highs. Buy point is over 27.50 but if you can take the risk, then you could buy now. Chances of failure are greater if you buy earlier than recommended. Resistance is around 29.50 and 31.20. Waiting for a breakout is best.

Market Waiting For Fed

The markets moved up nicely today validating even more the short term bottom from last week. Looking at the charts we can see that the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 are setting up to move higher. That means that chart setups have a higher chance of working out. NITE and XLNX are continuing after a brief pause yesterday. If you didn't sell WFR yesterday then the turnaround today is positive. PETS is still hanging on but could breakout shortly. I will have some setups later today.

Another Nice Flag

Here is today's pick for Monday: PETS. Recent earnings news has awaken PETS for a possible move to the upside. Look at how the volume has picked up recently. That's a classic sign of renewed interest in this stock. There's a nice looking Bullflag in the making. If it can hold at this level and not break Friday's low, then it may run. Buy point on this one is somewhere above 13.35 on heavier than usual volume. This stock is a slow mover so don't expect big gains in the short term. Also keep an eye on SAY and BOLT since those too are making possible flags. Remember this market may have wild swings until this whole Fed/Sub prime situation gets sorted out. If you enjoyed this and previous posts then please leave a comment and let me know what you think or suggestions to improve this blog. Thank you.

Volatile Week

The markets had a nice follow through day on Thursday. That I think validates Wednesday's big up day and may be a bottom at least for the short term. Volatility will continue to be high due to the Fed meeting coming up and the hopes he will cut interest rates once again. We know that it will happen but the big question is by how much. If he doesn't cut enough, chances are that the markets will once again retest recent lows and may start a real defined down trend. Currently the markets are lightly oversold so there's room for some upside this coming week. My recent picks caved in to Friday's selling but are probably not done going up yet. WFR should have been sold due to it's morning gap up on Friday. When you have volatile markets, if a stock gaps up in price it's usually a sell signal for most traders. NITE and XLNX need more time to keep going but if this markets break to the down side, most stocks should be sold and patience to wait for better setups will be the key.

XLNX Ready to Move

I found a nice looking Bull Flag today. Hard to do with the majority of stock charts so beaten down lately. After posting decent earnings, XLNX has made this flag that needs maybe one or two more days. If it works out 21.75 to 22 may be a good place to jump in. The stock does seem to be a slow mover but with this great volume you may be able to secure a large position if you have the guts. Short term resistance will be somewhere around 23. If it can break through then 24 is within striking distance. Look at the increasing volume the past 3 days. That's very positive.

Are The Bulls Back?

Finally we had the bounce I had been talking about. This however is not the best way since it came late in the day. AAPL's bad news carried over from yesterday but buyers came in to rally it up. Tomorrow will be very important since we need follow up to this rally to validate it. Financial and housing stocks were the big winners so keep them on your radar. NITE still looking good but keep your stops close since I don't trust this market yet. WFR fell through support early on but I didn't recommend shorting and late in the day went through the buy point of 68.50. The solar group still badly beaten but some stocks are slow to react so keep an eye in that group. SOLF, CSIQ, SPWR, CSUN, and AKNS are some to keep on your watch list. I think there may be some short covering soon on those if this market continues.

WFR May Be Ready

Tonight's chart selection is WFR. I looked through so many charts and couldn't believe there was almost nothing looking good. That tells you the state the market's in lately. Too many stocks beaten down so much that time has to pass to make nice looking charts once again. WFR like it's peers has been selling off quite a bit for no good reason. The solar stocks group seems to follow the market quite well so that explains why they're so beaten down. WFR is currently in a box and the markets seem to be in a possible turnaround. If the market rallies, this group is poised to move higher. Also take into acount some short covering. WFR may be a safe bet if it can break through 68.50 on decent volume. If it falls through 62.25 then it may go even lower. Remember the market's oversold so this could be a good short term long play.

The Fed Does It Again

Another bad day for the markets. I'm glad it's over but I'm not so disappointed as others probably are. Despite the fact that the markets tanked today, they closed way off from their lows. That's considered very positive at least short term. The Fed finally did what he was supposed to: cut interest rates but he took too long. Housing and financial stocks were the biggest winners so far. Market's are still very oversold so I expect a bounce of some kind shortly. AAPL reported good earnings after hours but their guidance was not as good as it could have been so I see that many stocks are selling off probably on those news. We'll see if that carries over to tomorrow morning. If the markets can stay at this levels for at least a couple of days it could setup a move up but don't count on it. Last night's pick NITE made a nice move up but it may be a slow mover. If it closes higher tomorrow it may be a good idea to move your stop loss on it.

Possible Bullflag

NITE has risen after earnings and has made a small flag pattern. It would be best if it can wait 1 or 2 more days at this level before breaking out but it may not do it. Buy point would be above recent highs of 15.68 and support may be around flag lows somewhere at 14.60. If this market continues it's downward slide, then watch out. If it bounces from this oversold levels, then this flag may work.

Bad Holiday News

"Stock market futures pointing to sharp losses" not a good way to start the week. Today may be a Holiday but already the bad news are out. Markets overseas are tanking badly but that's just a follow up to last Friday's declines. First it was the housing bubble and now it's the subprime mess. I think that right about now we all know this but the news services are not going to let this one go easily. Before the markets open we can see the bad news but if you follow financial news casts, they keep pushing the bad news all day over and over. That's all that's needed to sell the markets down hard. Bears are loving it of course and I don't blame them. I remember about a year to 18 months ago I had a strange feeling one day. I said to myself: "this bull market feels like it's getting a bit long in the tooth". I'm not a bear so this was an unusual feeling. Yet the market kept going up. Sooner or later it was going to happen. It's true that it can fall faster than it went up. I just wish I was doing more short selling but with the market being so oversold now, I think looking for bullish stocks may be a good idea. Earnings season started so there will be lots of opportunities. Look for stocks that are holding tough during the selloffs. Those are more likely to go up when the markets do.

Let's Get Started!

Welcome to my blog. I decided to start this blog as a way of helping newbie traders. I remember when I started trading I had no idea where to get the education necessary to make it. It took me a while by trial and error and making some expensive mistakes but here I am. If you are new or are thinking about trading stocks, then make sure to check my blog often. I will try to do market updates but the main focus will be on stocks that are moving. I will also eventually make an education section to teach you how I do it. Don't expect anything fancy since I have learned that the best way to make money in the stock market is to keep it simple.

I read market news all the time and listen to so called "experts" tell me how things should be only to find out that their advice is worthless. When was the last time you saw an expert tell you to buy a great stock that failed soon after? I watch CNBC just like some traders do and learn nothing new every time. They talk about the great fundamentals of stocks and make you feel that there's no way this stocks can fail. But yet they do. I read other news, blogs, etc. where the writers get you caught up on fundamentals and give you 100 reasons to buy their stock picks. Eventually you too will learn what to look for and when is the right time to buy. You will also learn "the rules" which you will write yourself believe it or not. So let's get started and make sure you take the time to learn and due your own research. Good luck from The StockDog.